Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) — closed signal from October 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.50 Published $14.02 Target $12.40 Window close $12.91 Peak
$11.80 – $12.47Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.50Published — price the day we called it
$14.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$12.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$12.91
peak on December 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$12.40
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 10, 2025 – January 8, 2026

The thesis — published October 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.02
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$11.80 – $12.47
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.50
published October 10, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NWBI looks cheap and steady. Recent reports say the stock trades about 49.5 percent below a fair value estimate. The bank just added a Chief Legal Officer, which can strengthen oversight. Views before Q3 are mixed, so patience helps. The recent average price is trending up and investor mood is firm, which can limit drops. If money earned from loans holds steady, the stock could be revalued over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger finances and profits than many similar banks, based on recent results
  • Shares appear far cheaper than what the business could be worth today
  • New leadership can improve oversight and reduce legal or policy risks
  • Recent average price is rising even while other signals look neutral

How it played out

NWBI: target was not reached

Lyra published NWBI on 2025-10-10 at 12.5 for a short-term window through 2026-01-08. The thesis looked for 14 percent growth to 14.02. It pointed to stronger finances and profits than similar banks, a share price seen as far below fair value, new leadership for oversight, and a rising recent average price while other signals looked neutral.

Inside the window, NWBI peaked at 12.91 on 2025-12-11, a 3.3 percent gain. It stayed below the 14.02 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 12.4. The thesis only partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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