Track record · closed signal

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) — closed signal from October 9, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 7, 2026 — -2.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$137.30 – $139.26Entry zone — fair-value band

$139.95Published — price the day we called it

$152.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$153.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$137.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-2.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$137.01

last close inside the window, ended January 7, 2026

Peak price

$153.69

peak on October 21, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 9, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$152.46

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$137.30 – $139.26

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$139.95

published October 9, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

PepsiCo is a stable, everyday-products company whose share price has fallen a lot, which can set up a short-term rebound. The latest quarter beat expectations, led by drinks and international sales, and hints of 2025 rate cuts can help steady companies. Over the next 0-3 months, the recent pullback could improve if the price can stabilize. Keep an eye on ingredient costs and softer snack demand.

Primary drivers

Share price fell hard recently, which can set up a short-term rebound
Recent quarter beat forecasts, driven by strong beverage and drink sales
Hints of future rate cuts can help steady essential brands like Pepsi
Watch ingredient costs and pricing power, since these drive profit margins

How it played out

PEP: rebound came close, then faded by the end

Lyra published PEP at 139.95 on 2025-10-09 with a short-term rebound thesis. The expected growth was 10%. The thesis pointed to a hard recent share-price fall, a quarter that beat forecasts, beverage strength, possible rate-cut support for steady essential brands, and margin risks from ingredient costs and pricing power.

Inside the window, PEP peaked at 153.69 on 2025-10-21, with a 9.8% peak gain. The stated target was 152.46, but the outcome data did not record the target as reached. By 2026-01-07, it ended at 137.01. The rebound partly played out, then faded.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-09, PepsiCo reported third-quarter results that topped expectations and announced Steve Schmitt would become CFO on November 10. On 2025-12-08, PepsiCo announced steps for 2026 aimed at sales growth and cost cuts after engagement with Elliott Investment Management.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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