Track record · closed signal

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) — closed signal from October 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$139.95 Published $152.46 Target $137.01 Window close $153.69 Peak
$137.30 – $139.26Entry zone — fair-value band
$139.95Published — price the day we called it
$152.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$153.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$137.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$153.69
peak on October 21, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$137.01
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 9, 2025 – January 7, 2026

The thesis — published October 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$152.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$137.30 – $139.26
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$139.95
published October 9, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PepsiCo is a stable, everyday-products company whose share price has fallen a lot, which can set up a short-term rebound. The latest quarter beat expectations, led by drinks and international sales, and hints of 2025 rate cuts can help steady companies. Over the next 0-3 months, the recent pullback could improve if the price can stabilize. Keep an eye on ingredient costs and softer snack demand.

Primary drivers

  • Share price fell hard recently, which can set up a short-term rebound
  • Recent quarter beat forecasts, driven by strong beverage and drink sales
  • Hints of future rate cuts can help steady essential brands like Pepsi
  • Watch ingredient costs and pricing power, since these drive profit margins

How it played out

PEP: rebound came close, then faded by the end

Lyra published PEP at 139.95 on 2025-10-09 with a short-term rebound thesis. The expected growth was 10%. The thesis pointed to a hard recent share-price fall, a quarter that beat forecasts, beverage strength, possible rate-cut support for steady essential brands, and margin risks from ingredient costs and pricing power.

Inside the window, PEP peaked at 153.69 on 2025-10-21, with a 9.8% peak gain. The stated target was 152.46, but the outcome data did not record the target as reached. By 2026-01-07, it ended at 137.01. The rebound partly played out, then faded.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-09, PepsiCo reported third-quarter results that topped expectations and announced Steve Schmitt would become CFO on November 10. On 2025-12-08, PepsiCo announced steps for 2026 aimed at sales growth and cost cuts after engagement with Elliott Investment Management.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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