Track record · closed signal

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) — closed signal from October 9, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 7, 2026 — +1.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ABBV price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$230.30 Published $256.09 Target $233.42 Window close $239.29 Peak
$225.73 – $229.68Entry zone — fair-value band
$230.30Published — price the day we called it
$256.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$239.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$233.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+1.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$233.42
last close inside the window, ended January 7, 2026
Peak price
$239.29
peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$256.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$225.73 – $229.68
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$230.30
published October 9, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AbbVie looks like a large drug maker whose share price fell too far and may be set for a short-term bounce. Investor mood improved after a major bank raised its target to $251 and the company shared encouraging study news in eye care and HIV. If interest stays firm, the next 0-3 months could see a recovery. Key risks: pressure on medicine prices, tough rivals in immunology, and possible policy changes.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down; recent buying trend appears to be improving.
  • Bank of America lifted its target to $251, boosting confidence.
  • Encouraging study results in eye care and HIV improved sentiment.
  • Healthcare stocks can hold up better when markets get choppy.

How it played out

ABBV: target was not reached

Lyra published ABBV on 2025-10-09 at $230.30 with an expected gain of 12% and a target of $256.09. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, improving recent buying, a major bank target of $251, encouraging study news in eye care and HIV, and steadier healthcare demand in choppy markets.

Inside the window, ABBV rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at $239.29 on 2025-11-13, a 3.9% gain, then ended the window at $233.42 on 2026-01-07. The thesis partly played out, but the full target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-31, AbbVie reported third-quarter revenue of $15.78 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.86 per share. The same report said AbbVie raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $10.61 to $10.65 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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