Track record · closed signal

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR) — closed signal from October 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BBAR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.72 Published $11.69 Target $17.52 Window close $19.08 Peak
$8.37 – $8.87Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.72Published — price the day we called it
$11.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$19.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$17.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

Peak price
$19.08
peak on December 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+118.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$17.52
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
18
Window
October 9, 2025 – January 7, 2026

The thesis — published October 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$11.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$8.37 – $8.87
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.72
published October 9, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

BBAR is a bet on Argentina improving, helped by possible U.S. financial support. Reports mentioned talks for a $20B swap line and interest in buying Argentina's dollar bonds, though politics remain noisy. Over the next 0-3 months, news could drive sharp moves. Keep the position small and add only if the price proves strength by reaching new highs, since policy shifts and currency swings can cause sudden ups and downs.

Primary drivers

  • Talks about a possible U.S. credit line to support Argentina
  • Investor optimism with heavier trading than usual
  • Headlines hinting at more political and financial support
  • Large market and currency swings in Argentina

How it played out

BBAR: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published BBAR on 2025-10-09 at 8.72 as a short-term thesis with 35% expected growth. The thesis pointed to Argentina improving, possible U.S. financial support, talks about a $20B swap line, interest in buying Argentina's dollar bonds, investor optimism, heavier trading than usual, support headlines, and large market and currency swings in Argentina.

Inside the window from 2025-10-09 to 2026-01-07, BBAR reached the 11.69 target in 18 days. It later peaked at 19.08 on 2025-12-29, a 118.7% gain, and ended at 17.52. The published thesis played out. It did more than reach the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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