Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$141.23 Published $180.47 Target $203.08 Window close $210.45 Peak
$138.54 – $143.53Entry zone — fair-value band
$141.23Published — price the day we called it
$180.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$210.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$203.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 85 days.

Peak price
$210.45
peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+49%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$203.08
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
85
Window
October 9, 2025 – January 7, 2026

The thesis — published October 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$180.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$138.54 – $143.53
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$141.23
published October 9, 2025
Confidence
94%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research looks strong as demand for AI servers pushes chip factories to spend more on tools. Price momentum is positive, and lots more people are buying than usual. On 2025-10-09, reports noted a 33.7% jump in September tied to higher factory budgets, and peers beat Q2 sales. Export rules may cause bumps, but over the next 0-3 months the uptrend can continue. Consider buying on pullbacks with a clear plan.

Primary drivers

  • Uptrend looks healthy, with the recent average price still pointing higher.
  • AI server growth is pushing chip factories to spend more on tools.
  • The stock looks cooled off recently, leaving room for a rebound.
  • A 33.7% September jump shows strong buying interest and confidence.

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 85 days

Lyra published LRCX on 2025-10-09 at $141.23 with expected growth of 28% and a target of $180.47. The thesis pointed to a healthy uptrend, stronger chip-factory spending tied to artificial intelligence server growth, a cooled-off setup, and a 33.7% September jump that showed strong buying interest.

Inside the window from 2025-10-09 to 2026-01-07, the stock rose past the target and peaked at $210.45 on 2026-01-06. The target was reached in 85 days. It ended at $203.08, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-22, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on revenue of $5.32 billion. It also projected fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.15 per share on revenue of $5.2 billion. These were company results and guidance reported during the window, not stated as the cause of the price move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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