NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 9, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 7, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 9, 2025
NVIDIA is still the clear leader in AI chips, and buyers remain very active. Price action looks healthy and trading has been heavy, showing strong interest. On 2025-10-09, Cantor raised its goal to $300, citing the massive buildout of AI. Over the next 0-3 months, steady data center orders and a broad product lineup could keep the move going. Main risks: supply returning to normal and possible policy limits that could slow growth.
Primary drivers
- Buying interest is strong, with far more shares trading than usual
- Huge need for AI computer gear keeps orders coming from big customers
- A major research firm lifted its price goal to $300 this week
- A top performer that often continues higher as strength persists
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at 193.55 on 2025-10-09 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to heavy buying interest, continued demand for artificial intelligence computer gear, a research firm lifting its price goal to $300, and recent strength that could keep carrying the stock higher.
Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach 241.92. The peak was 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 9.6% gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-07, the stock ended at 189.11, below the publication price. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $57.01 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion. The company also gave fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $65 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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