Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from July 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025 — +39.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$176.20 Published $209.36 Target $245.60 Window close $255.83 Peak
$171.47 – $176.45Entry zone — fair-value band
$176.20Published — price the day we called it
$209.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$255.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$245.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

At window close
+39.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+45.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+7.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$245.60
last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2025
Peak price
$255.83
peak on September 19, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
47

The thesis — published July 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+19%
over the measurement window
Target price
$209.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$171.47 – $176.45
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$176.20
published July 9, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's Gemini AI is moving onto Galaxy smartwatches, opening a new way to make money through device partnerships. Trading data show many more buyers than sellers, and on July 9 large institutions loaded up on call options, signalling they expect higher prices. A new browser from OpenAI could steal some attention, yet overall demand looks strong. We think shares can work gradually up to about $195 by October, so we favor starting positions now and adding on dips while watching headlines closely.

Primary drivers

  • Gemini AI on smartwatches could open a new stream of device-driven sales.
  • Strong buying signals point to a faster upward trend in the share price.
  • Large investors bought lots of call options on Jul 9, hinting at optimism.
  • OpenAI building a browser adds competition and trims enthusiasm slightly.

How it played out

GOOGL: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published GOOGL at $176.20 on 2025-07-09 with 19% expected growth and a $209.36 target by 2025-10-07. The thesis pointed to Gemini moving onto smartwatches, strong buying signals, large call-option buying on Jul 9, and some caution from new browser competition.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 47 days. It peaked at $255.83 on 2025-09-19, a 45.2% gain from publication. It ended the window at $245.60, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2025, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $96.43 billion and net income of $28.2 billion. The same report said Google Cloud revenue was $13.62 billion and Search and Other revenue was $54.19 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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