Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from July 9, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 47 days.
The thesis — published July 9, 2025
Alphabet's Gemini AI is moving onto Galaxy smartwatches, opening a new way to make money through device partnerships. Trading data show many more buyers than sellers, and on July 9 large institutions loaded up on call options, signalling they expect higher prices. A new browser from OpenAI could steal some attention, yet overall demand looks strong. We think shares can work gradually up to about $195 by October, so we favor starting positions now and adding on dips while watching headlines closely.
Primary drivers
- Gemini AI on smartwatches could open a new stream of device-driven sales.
- Strong buying signals point to a faster upward trend in the share price.
- Large investors bought lots of call options on Jul 9, hinting at optimism.
- OpenAI building a browser adds competition and trims enthusiasm slightly.
How it played out
GOOGL: target reached in 47 days
Lyra published GOOGL at $176.20 on 2025-07-09 with 19% expected growth and a $209.36 target by 2025-10-07. The thesis pointed to Gemini moving onto smartwatches, strong buying signals, large call-option buying on Jul 9, and some caution from new browser competition.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 47 days. It peaked at $255.83 on 2025-09-19, a 45.2% gain from publication. It ended the window at $245.60, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On July 23, 2025, Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $96.43 billion and net income of $28.2 billion. The same report said Google Cloud revenue was $13.62 billion and Search and Other revenue was $54.19 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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