Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Limited (Tiger Brokers) (TIGR) — closed signal from October 8, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.15 Published $13.19 Target $10.44 Window close $11.35 Peak
$9.80 – $10.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.15Published — price the day we called it
$13.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$11.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$11.35
peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.44
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 8, 2025 – January 6, 2026

The thesis — published October 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.80 – $10.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.15
published October 8, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TIGR looks like a beaten-down stock that could snap back as buyers return. The business is solid for a finance tech firm, and the market values it at about 14 times expected earnings, which is reasonable. We prefer buying only after the price shows steadier higher dips. If investors take on more risk again, more trading by individuals could lift revenue. Expect choppy moves but a better upside tilt over the next 0-3 months with careful risk limits.

Primary drivers

  • Stock has fallen hard and may bounce back toward its usual range
  • Looks reasonably priced with solid profits, cash flow, and balance sheet
  • Investor mood is perking up, which can draw more interest to the stock
  • More small-investor trading could boost the company's fees and revenue

How it played out

TIGR: target was not reached by window end

Lyra published TIGR at $10.15 on 2025-10-08 with a short-term thesis for 30% expected growth. The target was $13.19. The thesis pointed to a hard prior fall that could bounce, reasonable valuation around 14 times expected earnings, solid profits, cash flow, and balance sheet, better investor mood, and more small-investor trading that could lift fees and revenue.

Inside the window from 2025-10-08 to 2026-01-06, TIGR rose but stayed below the target. The peak was $11.35 on 2026-01-06, a 11.9% gain. It ended at $10.44. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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