NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 8, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 6, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 8, 2025
Interest in the stock is picking up as more buyers step in than sellers, and the company's numbers and investor mood look steady. News that Nvidia may invest up to $2B in xAI highlights how central its chips are to AI and its likely long-term lead. Demand for its high-speed computing gear is still stronger than supply. Buying in small steps near today's price aims to catch a move higher as this quiet period ends.
Primary drivers
- Many more buyers than usual are stepping in, a sign momentum is improving
- Possible multibillion xAI deal highlights Nvidia's key role at the center of AI
- Demand for Nvidia's AI chips is stronger than supply for now, supporting growth
- Price action and business results both look steady, giving a balanced setup
How it played out
NVDA: target missed after a 12.7% peak gain
Lyra published NVDA at 188.19 on 2025-10-08 with 20% expected growth. The thesis pointed to stronger buyer interest, a possible multibillion xAI deal, demand for artificial intelligence chips running ahead of supply, and steady price action and business results. The target was 225.82.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29. That was a 12.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the target. It never got there. By 2026-01-06, the stock ended at 187.24, below the publication price. The thesis partially played out on the early move, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported $57 billion in revenue and $51.2 billion in data center revenue for its third quarter. The report also said Nvidia gave a $65 billion revenue outlook for the next quarter.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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