Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 8, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 6, 2026 — -12.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$96.50 – $99.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$98.13Published — price the day we called it

$117.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$85.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-12.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$85.54

last close inside the window, ended January 6, 2026

Peak price

$100.35

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$117.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$96.50 – $99.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$98.13

published October 8, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks appealing because the price cooled off and now the overall trend is turning up. Investors seem upbeat ahead of the Nov 4 earnings update, and coverage points to long-run potential if self-driving ride services take off. The business is showing better profits and stronger cash coming in. A near-term plan is to buy on dips and add if strength builds, aiming for a 0-3 month move as app use and travel demand stay firm.

Primary drivers

Recent pullback with trend turning up, a healthier setup for buyers
Upcoming Nov 4 earnings could spark fresh interest in the stock
Profits and cash generation are improving, easing money worries
Self-driving plans could expand the potential customer base over time

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published UBER on 2025-10-08 at $98.13 with a 0-3 month thesis for 20% growth. The thesis pointed to a recent pullback with the trend turning up, possible interest around the Nov 4 earnings update, improving profits and cash generation, and self-driving plans that could expand the customer base over time.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $100.35 on 2025-11-03, a 2.3% gain. That stayed below the $117.76 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-01-06, the stock ended at $85.54. The thesis did not play out on price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Uber reported third-quarter revenue of $13.47 billion and gross bookings of $49.7 billion. On 2025-11-26, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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