The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 8, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 6, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 79% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 8, 2025
Schwab's price action is improving, and there are signs that more buyers than usual are stepping in. New offerings like private issuer equity services, plans to open more branches, and the option to trade crypto could bring in and retain clients. The main risk is that profits move with interest rates. A step-by-step buy near the low end makes sense, with a possible 0-3 month rebound toward earlier highs as customer activity steadies.
Primary drivers
- Price trend looks healthier, with more buyers than usual lifting momentum.
- New service lets clients handle private company shares, adding fresh revenue.
- Opening more branches and possible crypto trading broaden client appeal.
- Customer investing activity appears to be improving, supporting steadier results.
How it played out
SCHW: thesis partially played out, target missed
Lyra published SCHW at $93 on 2025-10-08, with expected growth of 16% over a short-term window ending 2026-01-06. The thesis pointed to healthier price action, more buyers than usual, private issuer equity services, more branches, possible crypto trading, and steadier customer investing activity. It also named interest-rate sensitivity as the main risk.
Inside the window, SCHW rose to $104.76 on 2026-01-06, a peak gain of 12.7%. That stayed below the $107.57 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended at $103.57. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the full target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter 2025 profit of $2.28 billion and revenue of $6.14 billion. On 2025-11-06, MarketWatch reported that Schwab agreed to buy Forge Global in a deal valued at $660 million.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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