Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$142.61 Published $185.39 Target $182.17 Window close $190.00 Peak
$138.00 – $144.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$142.61Published — price the day we called it
$185.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$182.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

Peak price
$190.00
peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$182.17
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
30
Window
July 9, 2025 – October 7, 2025

The thesis — published July 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$185.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$138.00 – $144.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$142.61
published July 9, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares jumped 52% recently and are now pausing in a tight range while interest stays high. Energy behind the move is strong (score 98) but the usual signal that extra buyers are coming in has not lit up yet. A new deal with Tomorrow.io opens the door to selling its data tools to weather-focused companies, and its order book is 19% bigger than last year. If fresh buying appears, the price could reach 160-165 within three months, but mixed basic numbers (score 39) keep us only moderately confident.

Primary drivers

  • High strength score of 98; large investors still adding despite no new buy signal.
  • Tomorrow.io partnership opens a weather-data market for Palantir's AI tools.
  • Orders waiting rose 19% over last year and the firm has moved into profit.
  • Many option bets at 160 dollars show traders expect a strong upward move.

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published PLTR on 2025-07-09 at 142.61. The thesis expected 30% growth, with a target of 185.39. It pointed to strong price strength (score 98), large investors still adding, the Tomorrow.io partnership for weather-focused data tools, orders waiting up 19% from last year, profit, and option bets around 160.

Inside the window, PLTR reached 190 on 2025-08-12. That was above the target and came in 30 days. The peak gain was 33.2%. By 2025-10-07, the stock ended at 182.17. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 4, 2025, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1 billion and raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion. On July 31, 2025, the U.S. Army announced an enterprise agreement with Palantir valued at up to $10 billion over 10 years.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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