Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025 — +27.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$138.00 – $144.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$142.61Published — price the day we called it

$185.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$182.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

At window close

+27.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+33.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$182.17

last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2025

Peak price

$190.00

peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 9, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$185.39

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$138.00 – $144.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$142.61

published July 9, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares jumped 52% recently and are now pausing in a tight range while interest stays high. Energy behind the move is strong (score 98) but the usual signal that extra buyers are coming in has not lit up yet. A new deal with Tomorrow.io opens the door to selling its data tools to weather-focused companies, and its order book is 19% bigger than last year. If fresh buying appears, the price could reach 160-165 within three months, but mixed basic numbers (score 39) keep us only moderately confident.

Primary drivers

High strength score of 98; large investors still adding despite no new buy signal.
Tomorrow.io partnership opens a weather-data market for Palantir's AI tools.
Orders waiting rose 19% over last year and the firm has moved into profit.
Many option bets at 160 dollars show traders expect a strong upward move.

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published PLTR on 2025-07-09 at 142.61. The thesis expected 30% growth, with a target of 185.39. It pointed to strong price strength (score 98), large investors still adding, the Tomorrow.io partnership for weather-focused data tools, orders waiting up 19% from last year, profit, and option bets around 160.

Inside the window, PLTR reached 190 on 2025-08-12. That was above the target and came in 30 days. The peak gain was 33.2%. By 2025-10-07, the stock ended at 182.17. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 4, 2025, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1 billion and raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion. On July 31, 2025, the U.S. Army announced an enterprise agreement with Palantir valued at up to $10 billion over 10 years.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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