Track record · closed signal

Amphenol Corporation (APH) — closed signal from October 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

APH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$124.30 Published $143.91 Target $141.38 Window close $144.09 Peak
$121.53 – $125.02Entry zone — fair-value band
$124.30Published — price the day we called it
$143.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$144.09Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$141.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$144.09
peak on November 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$141.38
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 8, 2025 – January 6, 2026

The thesis — published October 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$143.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$121.53 – $125.02
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$124.30
published October 8, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amphenol looks like a strong company that pulled back and may bounce. The recent average price trend is steady, and many buyers appear optimistic. A preview suggests earnings per share could rise 58% compared to last year, which is a meaningful near-term event. Because Amphenol sells into many industries and has backing from large investors, buying small dips could target a move toward recent highs over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Recent pullback with a steady price trend
  • Q3 earnings per share expected up 58% versus last year
  • Positive mood and interest from large, long-term investors
  • Sells into many industries, limiting dependence on one area

How it played out

APH: peak cleared target, 16% move fell just short

Lyra published APH at $124.30 on 2025-10-08 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth toward $143.91. The thesis pointed to a recent pullback with a steady price trend, Q3 earnings per share expected up 58% versus last year, positive mood from large, long-term investors, and sales across many industries.

Inside the window, APH peaked at $144.09 on 2025-11-10. That cleared the $143.91 price target, but the recorded peak gain was 15.9%, just short of the 16% growth Lyra published. It ended at $141.38 on 2026-01-06. The thesis mostly played out, but not perfectly by the stated percentage.

What happened during the window

On October 22, 2025, Amphenol reported third-quarter results with earnings per share of $0.93 and revenue of $6.2 billion. The same report said the company raised its quarterly dividend by 52% to 25 cents per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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