Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from October 8, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 6, 2026 — -13% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$152.43 Published $192.06 Target $132.58 Window close $164.94 Peak
$148.00 – $153.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$152.43Published — price the day we called it
$192.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$164.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$132.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-13%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$132.58
last close inside the window, ended January 6, 2026
Peak price
$164.94
peak on October 30, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$192.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$148.00 – $153.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$152.43
published October 8, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks beaten down and may be ready to rebound. Very low short-term readings suggest sellers are running out of steam, while overall mood around the name remains strong. A Q3 update on Nov 4 and a steady record of topping estimates could spark interest. Buying near $148-$153 aims for a multi-week recovery as big cloud data centers and AI networks keep expanding, which directly drives demand for Arista's gear.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down but starting to firm up, hinting at a rebound ahead.
  • Leader in networks for large cloud and AI data centers, a key growth area.
  • Q3 report is near, and the company often tops expectations, drawing interest.
  • Strong investor interest and active trading make entering and exiting easier.

How it played out

ANET: rebound faded before the target

Lyra published ANET at $152.43 on 2025-10-08 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-06. The thesis looked for 26% growth and pointed to beaten-down short-term readings, a possible rebound, the Q3 update on Nov 4, strong investor interest, and demand from large cloud and artificial intelligence data centers.

The stock rose, but it did not reach the $192.06 target. It peaked at $164.94 on 2025-10-30, a 8.2% gain, then fell back. By the window end it was $132.58. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On Nov 4, 2025, Arista reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.75 per share and revenue of $2.308 billion. The same report said Arista guided December-quarter revenue to $2.35 billion at the midpoint.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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