Track record · closed signal

LendingClub Corporation (LC) — closed signal from October 7, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.33 Published $18.70 Target $20.26 Window close $20.94 Peak
$14.60 – $15.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.33Published — price the day we called it
$18.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$20.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 16 days.

Peak price
$20.94
peak on December 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+36.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$20.26
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
16
Window
October 7, 2025 – January 5, 2026

The thesis — published October 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$18.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$14.60 – $15.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.33
published October 7, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

LendingClub looks set up for a bounce after a sharp drop. One momentum sign hints the slide may be ending, though others still look weak. A sensible plan is to start small near this range and add only if the price can hold above 16. Peers posted good quarterly results, and the recent dip seems driven by broad economy worries, not a company issue. If funding costs and loan losses calm down, the price could move back toward its usual range over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • The stock dropped sharply lately, suggesting it may have room to bounce soon
  • Peers reported solid results, showing people still want these services
  • Investor interest remains high even after the dip, which can lift demand
  • Fears about the wider economy are easing, lowering the extra risk in prices

How it played out

LC: target reached in 16 days

Lyra published LC at $15.33 on 2025-10-07 with a short-term thesis for 22% growth. The thesis pointed to a possible bounce after a sharp drop, stronger peer results, high investor interest after the dip, and easing worries about the wider economy. It also said the price could move back toward its usual range over the next 3 months.

Inside the window from 2025-10-07 to 2026-01-05, LC reached the $18.70 target in 16 days. It later peaked at $20.94 on 2025-12-11, a 36.6% gain. It ended the window at $20.26. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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