Track record · closed signal

Aris Water Solutions, Inc. (ARIS) — closed signal from October 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARIS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$23.40 – $24.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$24.30Published — price the day we called it

$28.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$24.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$23.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$24.70

peak on October 8, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+1.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$23.69

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 7, 2025 – January 5, 2026

The thesis — published October 7, 2025

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$28.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$23.40 – $24.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$24.30

published October 7, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ARIS looks beaten down but is starting to stabilize. Even if a common momentum gauge stays soft, the recent average price is pointing up. News showed a 43% one-year return and nearly 40% growth in net income, signaling strong execution. In a friendly market, buying near the low-24s and adding only if it clears 25 sets a three-month plan as oilfield activity and water recycling scale improve visibility on cash flows.

Primary drivers

Shares look overly sold; short-term weakness may be fading
Proven growth: 43% one-year return and nearly 40% net income growth
Contract-backed revenue helps keep cash coming in more predictably
Strong oilfield activity boosts demand for water services in the Permian

How it played out

ARIS: target was not reached

Lyra published ARIS on 2025-10-07 at 24.3 with a short-term thesis for 17% growth. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked overly sold, short-term weakness that might be fading, a 43% one-year return, nearly 40% net income growth, contract-backed revenue, and Permian water-services demand. It also framed the plan around buying near the low-24s and adding only if it cleared 25.

Inside the window, ARIS peaked at 24.7 on 2025-10-08, a 1.6% gain. That stayed below the 28.43 target. It never got there. The stock ended at 23.69 on 2026-01-05. The thesis missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ARIS signals