Track record · closed signal

Royal Bank of Canada (RY) — closed signal from October 7, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

RY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$145.86 Published $159.24 Target $173.11 Window close $173.20 Peak
$141.85 – $144.81Entry zone — fair-value band
$145.86Published — price the day we called it
$159.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$173.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$173.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 58 days.

Peak price
$173.20
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$173.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
58
Window
October 7, 2025 – January 5, 2026

The thesis — published October 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$159.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$141.85 – $144.81
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$145.86
published October 7, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Royal Bank of Canada looks temporarily knocked down, but sentiment remains positive. A major bank lifted its target to C$203 after strong Q2 results, which helps confidence. With a reliable dividend and several steady businesses, the price could edge toward fair value. Start near 144-147 and add over 149, while watching interest rates in the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down, increasing chances of a near-term recovery move.
  • BMO raised its target to C$203 after strong quarterly results, boosting trust.
  • Attractive dividend and strong mix of businesses help support the share price.
  • Overall market tone is favorable, which can help steady, gradual gains.

How it played out

RY: target reached in 58 days

Lyra published RY on 2025-10-07 at 145.86 with a short-term view for 10% growth. The thesis said the stock looked temporarily knocked down and could move back toward fair value. It pointed to BMO lifting its target to C$203 after strong Q2 results, a reliable dividend, a steady mix of businesses, and a favorable market tone.

Inside the window from 2025-10-07 to 2026-01-05, RY reached the 159.24 target in 58 days. It kept rising to a 173.20 peak on 2026-01-05, with a 18.7% peak gain. It ended at 173.11. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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