Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 5, 2026 — +10.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.48 – $93.47Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.70Published — price the day we called it

$109.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$104.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$103.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+10.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$103.74

last close inside the window, ended January 5, 2026

Peak price

$104.44

peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 7, 2025

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$109.31

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.48 – $93.47

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.70

published October 7, 2025

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Client activity is picking up, and profits look set to turn higher. For Q3, earnings per share are projected to rise 58% from last year, which can spark near-term interest. Price action has been steady with more buyers than sellers lately, and entries near the recent average price range make sense. In a mildly positive market, rising account values and trading usually help brokers, so SCHW could be revalued over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

A key activity index moved up, pointing to more client engagement
Earnings per share are projected to rise 58% versus last year
Buying interest looks stronger than selling and the trend is steady
When markets lean positive, higher assets and trading help brokers

How it played out

SCHW: rose 11.5% but missed the target

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-10-07 at 93.7 for a short-term window through 2026-01-05. The thesis expected 17% growth and pointed to stronger client activity, earnings per share projected to rise 58% versus last year, steady buying interest, and a mildly positive market backdrop that usually helped brokers.

Inside the window, SCHW rose, but it stayed below the 109.31 target. The peak was 104.44 on 2026-01-05, with a peak gain of 11.5%. It ended at 103.74. The thesis partly played out because the stock moved higher, but it never reached the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of 1.31 per share and revenue of 6.14 billion. On 2025-11-06, Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global for 660 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals