The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 7, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 5, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 7, 2025
Client activity is picking up, and profits look set to turn higher. For Q3, earnings per share are projected to rise 58% from last year, which can spark near-term interest. Price action has been steady with more buyers than sellers lately, and entries near the recent average price range make sense. In a mildly positive market, rising account values and trading usually help brokers, so SCHW could be revalued over the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- A key activity index moved up, pointing to more client engagement
- Earnings per share are projected to rise 58% versus last year
- Buying interest looks stronger than selling and the trend is steady
- When markets lean positive, higher assets and trading help brokers
How it played out
SCHW: rose 11.5% but missed the target
Lyra published SCHW on 2025-10-07 at 93.7 for a short-term window through 2026-01-05. The thesis expected 17% growth and pointed to stronger client activity, earnings per share projected to rise 58% versus last year, steady buying interest, and a mildly positive market backdrop that usually helped brokers.
Inside the window, SCHW rose, but it stayed below the 109.31 target. The peak was 104.44 on 2026-01-05, with a peak gain of 11.5%. It ended at 103.74. The thesis partly played out because the stock moved higher, but it never reached the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of 1.31 per share and revenue of 6.14 billion. On 2025-11-06, Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global for 660 million.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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