Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from October 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$333.72 – $338.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$337.72Published — price the day we called it

$404.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$413.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$347.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 64 days.

Peak price

$413.82

peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+22.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$347.62

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

October 5, 2025 – January 3, 2026

The thesis — published October 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$404.49

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$333.72 – $338.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$337.72

published October 5, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom recently dropped, and strong companies often see a short-term bounce after such moves. It sells important chips for AI, and AI sales grew 63% compared with last year, keeping interest high. A major bank also raised its target to $420, which adds confidence. Risks include big customers doing more work in house and headline swings. Over the next 0-3 months, a recovery is possible if momentum steadies. Buy in steps and keep risk small.

Primary drivers

AI sales rose 63% compared with last year, showing strong demand growth.
A major bank raised its target price to $420 this week, boosting sentiment.
The price fell recently and may rebound soon in a quality, AI-focused company.
Big customers may shift production in house, which could reduce future orders.

How it played out

AVGO: target reached in 64 days

Lyra published AVGO at 337.72 on 2025-10-05 with 20% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a recent drop, artificial intelligence sales up 63% from last year, a major bank target of $420, and the risk that big customers might shift more work in house.

Inside the window, AVGO reached the 404.49 target. It peaked at 413.82 on 2025-12-10, with a 22.5% peak gain, and took 64 days to get there. By 2026-01-03 it ended at 347.62. The thesis played out, even though the close was well below the peak.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-13, Broadcom and OpenAI announced a strategic agreement to develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom accelerators. On 2025-12-12, Broadcom reported fiscal fourth-quarter sales of $18.02 billion and projected $8.2 billion in artificial intelligence semiconductor revenue for the next quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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