NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 9, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 9, 2025
Nvidia just hit a value of 4 trillion dollars. Even after that huge run, the share price is still about 8 percent above its recent average, showing buyers stay interested. Trading volume is far heavier than normal, meaning a lot more people are buying than usual. Sales from its data-center chips jumped 427 percent and supplies may remain tight until 2026, so demand should stay strong. Big investor Temasek plans to move 33 billion dollars into artificial-intelligence plays and called out Nvidia by name, adding another vote of confidence. Given this backdrop, the stock could drift up toward 175-180 dollars before the next earnings report.
Primary drivers
- Price still rising with an 8 percent cushion above the recent average, so trend healthy.
- Data-center sales up 427 percent, giving Nvidia plenty of cash to back its price.
- Temasek moving 33 billion dollars into AI and naming Nvidia signals fresh big-money buying.
- Crossing 4 trillion dollars keeps Nvidia in the headlines, attracting everyday investors and funds.
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at 162.82 on 2025-07-09, with expected growth of 25 percent and a target of 203.50. The thesis pointed to a 4 trillion dollar valuation, an 8 percent cushion above the recent average, heavier trading volume, data-center chip sales up 427 percent, tight supply into 2026, and Temasek's 33 billion dollar artificial-intelligence plan naming Nvidia.
Inside the 2025-07-09 to 2025-10-07 window, NVDA rose but did not reach 203.50. It peaked at 191.04 on 2025-10-02, a 17.3 percent gain. It ended at 185.03. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose strongly but stayed below the target.
What happened during the window
On August 28, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter revenue at $46.7 billion, with data-center revenue at $41.1 billion. On September 18, 2025, The Washington Post reported that Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel and a plan to develop data-center and PC products with Intel.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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