Track record · closed signal

Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from October 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ONB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$21.48 – $21.97Entry zone — fair-value band

$22.04Published — price the day we called it

$25.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$23.59Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$22.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$23.59

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$22.55

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 5, 2025 – January 3, 2026

The thesis — published October 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$25.63

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$21.48 – $21.97

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$22.04

published October 5, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Analysts see room for upside: the stock may be up to 43% cheaper than its worth, and earnings are expected to grow 34%. The price trend is okay but not strong, so buying near the lower end of its recent range and adding if momentum improves makes sense. Over the next 0-3 months, watch loans, deposits, and credit quality. More buyers than usual and a firmer trend would support the next move up. Keep position size moderate.

Primary drivers

Analysts say shares may be up to 43% cheap, with earnings set to grow
Investor mood is upbeat, with more buyers than usual showing steady interest
Core banking basics look steady: loans, deposits, and credit quality hold up
Momentum needs to firm up before a stronger move higher can stick

How it played out

ONB: thesis rose but target was not reached

Lyra published ONB at $22.04 on 2025-10-05 with a short-term view through 2026-01-03. The thesis expected 17% growth and pointed to shares that analysts saw as up to 43% cheap, earnings expected to grow 34%, steady loans, deposits, and credit quality, upbeat buyer interest, and momentum that still needed to firm up.

Inside the window, ONB rose but did not reach $25.63. The peak was $23.59 on 2025-12-22, a 7% gain. It never got there. The stock ended at $22.55. The thesis partially played out, because price moved up, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ONB signals