Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Ltd. (Tiger Brokers) (TIGR) — closed signal from July 9, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025 — -2.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.40 Published $14.56 Target $10.15 Window close $13.55 Peak
$10.20 – $10.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.40Published — price the day we called it
$14.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-2.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+30.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+7.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$10.15
last close inside the window, ended October 7, 2025
Peak price
$13.55
peak on August 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+40%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.20 – $10.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.40
published July 9, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tiger Brokers just saw far more buyers than usual, pushing the share price 14% above its recent average price. Investor mood is very upbeat. The number of active customers grew 41% in the first quarter, and more income now comes from interest on loans, making earnings steadier. A coming ETF dividend on 18 Jul could draw in extra buyers. Because the stock is still 15% below January levels, reaching $14 within three months feels possible.

Primary drivers

  • Trading volume was 8x normal, showing big professional investors are buying.
  • Price sits 14% above its recent average, signaling the upward trend is strong.
  • Active customers up 41%; more loan interest means steadier, repeating income.
  • Upcoming ETF dividend keeps excitement high and brings in a wider group of buyers.

How it played out

TIGR: target was not reached

Lyra published TIGR at $10.40 on 2025-07-09 with 40% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to trading volume at 8x normal, price 14% above its recent average, active customers up 41%, steadier loan-interest income, and a coming ETF dividend on 18 Jul.

Inside the window, TIGR rose to a $13.55 peak on 2025-08-25, a 30.3% gain. It stayed below the $14.56 target. The target was never reached. By 2025-10-07, the stock ended at $10.15. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 27, 2025, UP Fintech reported second-quarter results. The company reported revenue of $138.7 million and 1,192,700 customers with deposits.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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