Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.98 – $93.97Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.81Published — price the day we called it

$108.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$102.28Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$101.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$102.28

peak on December 26, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$101.57

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 5, 2025 – January 3, 2026

The thesis — published October 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$108.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.98 – $93.97

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.81

published October 5, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab's setup is getting better as early signs point to buyers slowly returning. This week, analysts expect $1.22 in earnings per share. The plan is to buy in steps, starting small, because the chart looks neutral; aim for gentle pullbacks rather than chasing jumps. Over the next 0-3 months, client deposits and withdrawals, cost discipline, and interest rates will guide the stock. Look for heavy post-earnings buying and higher lows before sizing up.

Primary drivers

Early signs of steady buying suggest the prior downtrend may be healing now
Optimism is building ahead of the upcoming quarterly earnings report
Solid business and finances make potential gains worth the possible downside
Interest rates and client money moving in or out will drive near-term moves

How it played out

SCHW: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published SCHW at 93.81 on 2025-10-05 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to early signs of steady buying, optimism ahead of quarterly earnings, solid business and finances, interest rates, and client money moving in or out.

Inside the window, SCHW rose but did not reach 108.52. Its peak was 102.28 on 2025-12-26, a 9% gain. It never got there. The window ended on 2026-01-03 at 101.57. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose meaningfully but stayed below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter profit and revenue above analyst estimates. On 2025-11-06, Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global Holdings.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals