Track record · closed signal

Unilever PLC (UL) — closed signal from October 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$66.20 Published $81.25 Target $65.40 Window close $70.81 Peak
$72.83 – $74.07Entry zone — fair-value band
$66.20Published — price the day we called it
$81.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$70.81Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$65.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$70.81
peak on October 23, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$65.40
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 3, 2025 – January 1, 2026

The thesis — published October 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$81.25
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$72.83 – $74.07
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$66.20
published October 3, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

- Focus: steady business, temporary price dip, improving mood. - Why: lots more people are buying than usual; EU home care is solid; business resilience across Europe. - Plan: start small, add only if price holds above $60.30; look for a measured 3-month rebound. - Risks: currency swings and pricing pressure; use a stop near $55.90.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks unusually low after a dip; buyers returning, sentiment improving.
  • Reliable cash generation from everyday products helps steady the business.
  • Strong presence in European household care supports sales and brand strength.
  • Likely drift back toward typical levels over time as price normalizes.

How it played out

UL: target was not reached by Jan. 1

Lyra published UL on 2025-10-03 at $66.20 with an expected 10% short-term rebound. The thesis pointed to a temporary price dip, buyers returning, improving sentiment, steady cash generation from everyday products, European household care strength, and a drift back toward typical levels over time.

Inside the window from 2025-10-03 to 2026-01-01, UL rose to a peak of $70.81 on 2025-10-23, a 7% gain. That stayed below the $81.25 target. It never got there. The signal ended at $65.40, below the publication price. The thesis partially played out, but the measured target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-08, The Magnum Ice Cream Company, previously part of Unilever, debuted on the Amsterdam stock exchange. Cinco Días reported that it also planned listings in London and New York.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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