Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from October 3, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026 — +0.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 68 days.
The thesis — published October 3, 2025
Broadcom builds key chips and software that run AI and big networks. The stock has paused after a climb, but buying interest is starting to return while the recent average price still tilts higher. A reported $10B custom AI chip agreement and rising AI sales support the next few months. Main risks: orders can shift in timing and the stock is expensive. If buyers step back in, a run toward prior highs is possible.
Primary drivers
- Rising demand for custom chips that power AI data centers and servers
- Recent average price is trending up, hinting buyers are regaining control
- Reports of a multibillion-dollar deal for a custom AI chip program
- Strong investor interest in leading chipmakers within the sector
How it played out
AVGO: target reached in 68 days
Lyra published AVGO at 342.99 on 2025-10-03 with expected growth of 20%. The target was 410.81. The thesis pointed to demand for custom chips that power artificial intelligence data centers, a recent average price that still tilted higher, reports of a multibillion-dollar custom chip program, and investor interest in leading chipmakers.
Inside the window, AVGO reached 413.82 on 2025-12-10, above the 410.81 target. It reached the target in 68 days. By 2026-01-01, it ended at 346.10. The thesis played out because the target was reached before the window closed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-13, OpenAI and Broadcom announced a multi-year agreement to co-develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom accelerators and rack systems. On 2025-12-11, Broadcom reported fiscal fourth-quarter sales of 18.02 billion and profit of 8.518 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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