Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) — closed signal from October 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026 — -2.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$11.84 – $12.33Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.29Published — price the day we called it

$13.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$12.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.00

last close inside the window, ended January 1, 2026

Peak price

$12.91

peak on December 11, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.90

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$11.84 – $12.33

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.29

published October 3, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Northwest Bancshares looks like a solid bank whose stock has fallen too far. Sales in Q2 rose 9.4% compared to last year, yet the price shows heavy pessimism that often snaps back. Investor mood is decent, and a new wealth management leader should deepen the franchise. This gap between steady business and low price could play out over 3 months. Risks: regional-bank worries and funding costs; keep the position modest.

Primary drivers

Healthy results suggest steady growth and a solid financial base
Price looks beaten down, creating a potentially attractive entry
Investor mood is fairly positive, and the stock seems inexpensive
New wealth leader can broaden services and strengthen loyalty

How it played out

NWBI: target was not reached

Lyra published NWBI at 12.29 on 2025-10-03 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-01. The thesis expected 15% growth and a move to 13.90. It pointed to Q2 sales growth of 9.4%, a stock price it saw as beaten down, decent investor mood, and a new wealth management leader that could deepen the franchise.

Inside the window, NWBI rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 12.91 on 2025-12-11, a 5% gain. It never got there. The stock ended at 12. The thesis partially played out on direction at the peak, but missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NWBI signals