Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from October 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$35.13 Published $38.99 Target $36.16 Window close $37.97 Peak
$34.37 – $35.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$35.13Published — price the day we called it
$38.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$36.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$37.97
peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$36.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 3, 2025 – January 1, 2026

The thesis — published October 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$38.99
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.37 – $35.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$35.13
published October 3, 2025
Confidence
87%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CTRE blends growth with steady income. More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price suggest momentum. The company is adding properties in the UK and sharing sustainability progress, which can draw long-term investors. A 10-year record of dividend increases helps cushion downsides. If interest rates settle, this healthcare landlord could see steady 3-month gains. Key risks: rate spikes and operator execution.

Primary drivers

  • More buyers than usual and the recent average price keeps trending up
  • Expanding into the UK adds more properties and diversifies income
  • Ten straight years of dividend increases signal reliable, growing payouts
  • Clear sustainability reporting can attract long-term, values-focused investors

How it played out

CTRE: thesis partly played out but missed the target

Lyra published CTRE at 35.13 on 2025-10-03 with a short-term thesis for 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to more buyers than usual, a rising recent average price, UK property expansion, ten straight years of dividend increases, and sustainability reporting that could attract long-term investors.

Inside the window, CTRE rose but did not reach 38.99. Its peak was 37.97 on 2025-12-04, with an 8.1% gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-01, it ended at 36.16. The thesis partly played out, because the stock rose, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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