Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from October 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026 — +2.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$34.37 – $35.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$35.13Published — price the day we called it

$38.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+2.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$36.16

last close inside the window, ended January 1, 2026

Peak price

$37.97

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$38.99

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$34.37 – $35.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$35.13

published October 3, 2025

Confidence

87%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CTRE blends growth with steady income. More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price suggest momentum. The company is adding properties in the UK and sharing sustainability progress, which can draw long-term investors. A 10-year record of dividend increases helps cushion downsides. If interest rates settle, this healthcare landlord could see steady 3-month gains. Key risks: rate spikes and operator execution.

Primary drivers

More buyers than usual and the recent average price keeps trending up
Expanding into the UK adds more properties and diversifies income
Ten straight years of dividend increases signal reliable, growing payouts
Clear sustainability reporting can attract long-term, values-focused investors

How it played out

CTRE: thesis partly played out but missed the target

Lyra published CTRE at 35.13 on 2025-10-03 with a short-term thesis for 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to more buyers than usual, a rising recent average price, UK property expansion, ten straight years of dividend increases, and sustainability reporting that could attract long-term investors.

Inside the window, CTRE rose but did not reach 38.99. Its peak was 37.97 on 2025-12-04, with an 8.1% gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-01, it ended at 36.16. The thesis partly played out, because the stock rose, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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