Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026 — +6.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.48 – $93.97Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.59Published — price the day we called it

$108.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$102.28Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$99.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 58% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+6.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$99.91

last close inside the window, ended January 1, 2026

Peak price

$102.28

peak on December 26, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$108.26

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.48 – $93.97

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.59

published October 3, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks beaten down but starting to recover, and investor mood is improving. The company just set a record $10.76T in client assets, and a major bank named it a top pick for the quarter. As interest rate paths become clearer, earnings from client cash could improve. Main risks: income tied to rates and choppy trading levels. We favor buying in steps and knowing your exit.

Primary drivers

Price looks washed out but starting to turn higher as buyers slowly return again
All-time high client assets signal strong trust and a resilient business
Named a top pick by a major bank, likely drawing fresh interest from investors
Clearer interest rates could lift income from client cash and brokerage

How it played out

SCHW: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-10-03 at 93.59. The thesis expected 16% growth and pointed to a washed-out price starting to recover, record client assets of $10.76T, a top-pick call from a major bank, and clearer interest rates that could help income from client cash. It also cited rate-linked income and choppy trading as risks.

Inside the window, SCHW rose but never reached 108.26. The peak was 102.28 on 2025-12-26, a 9.3% gain. It ended the window at 99.91. The published direction partly worked, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share and revenue of $6.1 billion. On 2025-11-06, Schwab announced an agreement to buy Forge Global in a transaction valued at about $660 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals