Track record · closed signal

Webster Financial Corporation (WBS) — closed signal from October 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 1, 2026 — +6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

WBS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$57.69 – $59.17Entry zone — fair-value band

$59.14Published — price the day we called it

$66.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$65.39Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$62.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+6.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$62.94

last close inside the window, ended January 1, 2026

Peak price

$65.39

peak on December 18, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$66.95

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$57.69 – $59.17

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$59.14

published October 3, 2025

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock dropped a lot and now looks ready for a short-term bounce. Investor mood is improving, and the bank's net interest income rose 8.2% compared to last year. Two research firms recently recommended the shares. If interest rates settle down, the price could recover over the next 3 months. Main risks are uncertain rate moves and normalizing credit costs; manage by buying in steps and keeping an exit plan.

Primary drivers

Sharp drop now drawing interest; buyer mood improving after recent weakness
Net interest income up 8.2% compared to last year, showing steady core strength
New buy ratings from well-known firms add credibility and public attention
If interest rates steady, bank earnings and valuation have room to improve

How it played out

WBS: thesis partially played out but missed the target

Lyra published WBS at $59.14 on 2025-10-03 with 14% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a sharp drop drawing buyer interest, improving investor mood, net interest income up 8.2% compared to last year, new buy ratings, and a possible benefit if interest rates steadied.

Inside the window, WBS rose to a peak of $65.39 on 2025-12-18, a 10.6% gain. It stayed below the $66.95 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $62.94 on 2026-01-01. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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