NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 2, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 31, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 2, 2025
NVIDIA remains the key supplier for the chips that power AI. Buying interest looks stronger than usual, but the price also looks a bit hot in the short term, so waiting for small dips can be wiser. The $500B OpenAI headline pulled attention and money toward top chip makers. Over the next three months, steady data center demand and growing software sales should help, but the rich price and tight supply call for careful, planned entries.
Primary drivers
- Ongoing need for AI chips and networking gear across large data centers
- Overall uptrend, with better odds when buying on normal price dips
- Recent AI headlines brought extra buying interest to leading chip firms
- Rising mix of tools and software sold together with NVIDIA's hardware
How it played out
NVDA: target missed after a 12.2% peak gain
Lyra published NVDA at 189.18 on 2025-10-02 with 22% expected growth and a 230.79 target by 2025-12-31. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips and networking gear, a broad uptrend with better entries on normal dips, recent artificial intelligence headlines, and a rising mix of tools and software sold with NVIDIA hardware.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 12.2% peak gain. It never reached 230.79. By 2025-12-31, it ended at 186.5, below the publication price. The thesis partly played out, but the target missed.
What happened during the window
On November 19, 2025, The Guardian reported NVIDIA's third-quarter results, including revenue of $57.01 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.30. It also reported data center revenue of $51.2 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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