Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 31, 2025 — +8.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$90.49 – $92.47Entry zone — fair-value band

$92.28Published — price the day we called it

$105.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$102.28Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$99.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+8.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$99.91

last close inside the window, ended December 31, 2025

Peak price

$102.28

peak on December 26, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$105.82

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$90.49 – $92.47

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$92.28

published October 2, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab may rebound after a sharp slide. It brought in $44.4B of new client assets in August and is opening 16 new branches while upgrading 25, pointing to steady growth and engagement. Short-term readings suggest the stock looks washed out, and buying interest appears stronger than usual. If rates settle, deposit pressures should ease. A return toward earlier price ranges over the next 3 months looks plausible, with risk set just under recent lows.

Primary drivers

Shares fell hard recently, and buying interest now looks stronger
Added $44.4B in new client assets in August, a strong sign of trust
Opening more branches should bring in more clients and steady deposits
Stable rates would ease funding costs and help earnings from client cash

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-10-02 at $92.28. The thesis expected 15% growth over the short term. It pointed to a rebound after a sharp slide, $44.4B of new client assets in August, 16 new branches, 25 upgrades, stronger buying interest, and possible relief from stable rates.

Inside the window from 2025-10-02 to 2025-12-31, SCHW rose but did not reach the $105.82 target. Its peak was $102.28 on 2025-12-26, a 10.8% gain. It ended at $99.91. The thesis partly played out. The stock moved in the expected direction, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-06, Charles Schwab agreed to buy Forge Global in a transaction valued at about $660 million. Barron's reported the same deal date and said the transaction was expected to close in the first half of 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals