Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from October 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 31, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$336.54 Published $386.28 Target $346.10 Window close $413.82 Peak
$330.73 – $336.71Entry zone — fair-value band
$336.54Published — price the day we called it
$386.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$413.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$346.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 54 days.

Peak price
$413.82
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$346.10
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
54
Window
October 2, 2025 – December 31, 2025

The thesis — published October 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$386.28
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$330.73 – $336.71
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$336.54
published October 2, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks beaten down and may be ready to bounce. Hype around new AI projects is pushing more interest in chips and software, which helps Broadcom's mix. This is a short-term idea: wait for signs the price is turning up, keep losses small, and aim for a possible 3-month move back toward earlier price ranges. The focus is on a careful trade rather than a long hold.

Primary drivers

  • Share price looks washed out and could rebound if momentum improves
  • Rising spending on AI hardware can boost Broadcom's chip sales and profits
  • Recent strength across tech stocks could help lift Broadcom shares too
  • Short-term trade idea, as the stock already bakes in plenty of optimism

How it played out

AVGO: target reached in 54 days

Lyra published AVGO at 336.54 on 2025-10-02 as a short-term rebound trade. The thesis expected 15% growth toward 386.28. It pointed to a washed-out share price, improving momentum, rising spending on artificial intelligence hardware, strength across tech stocks, and the risk that the stock already had plenty of optimism priced in.

Inside the window, AVGO reached the target in 54 days. It peaked at 413.82 on 2025-12-10, with a 23% gain at the high. By 2025-12-31, it ended at 346.10. The thesis played out, even though the close was well below the peak.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-13, OpenAI and Broadcom announced a multi-year agreement to co-develop and deploy 10GW of custom accelerators and rack systems. On 2025-12-12, Investopedia reported that Broadcom fell after stronger-than-expected earnings, with record revenue of 18.02 billion and adjusted earnings per share of 1.95.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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