Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 9, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025 — +5.2% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 9, 2025
The share price slid 7%, and a rare oversold signal that has usually been followed by a 9% bounce within roughly two months just flashed. Berkshire also sits on a huge $189 billion cash reserve it can use to buy back its own stock, which often pushes prices up. UBS, a large investment bank, still rates the shares a Buy even after trimming its target slightly. All this points to a possible move back toward $520 once the recent wave of selling fades.
Primary drivers
- Berkshire's $189 billion cash lets it repurchase plenty of its own stock.
- A rare indicator shows the stock is very beat-up and often rebounds.
- UBS still says Buy even after nudging its target lower, creating a dip chance.
- Rising insurance prices should improve Berkshire's profit mix.
How it played out
BRK-B: thesis partly played out, target missed
Lyra published BRK-B on 2025-07-09 at $477.47. The thesis expected 10% growth toward $525.22. It pointed to a 7% slide, a rare oversold signal that had often been followed by a 9% bounce within roughly two months, Berkshire's $189 billion cash reserve for possible buybacks, a UBS Buy rating, and rising insurance prices.
Inside the window, the stock rose, but not enough. It peaked at $507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6.3% gain, and stayed below the target. It ended at $502.30 on 2025-10-07. The thesis partly played out. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-02, Berkshire reported second-quarter 2025 operating earnings of $11,160 million and net earnings attributable to shareholders of $12,370 million. On 2025-10-02, Berkshire and Occidental announced a definitive agreement for Berkshire to acquire OxyChem in an all-cash transaction for $9.7 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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