Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 9, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 9, 2025
The share price slid 7%, and a rare oversold signal that has usually been followed by a 9% bounce within roughly two months just flashed. Berkshire also sits on a huge $189 billion cash reserve it can use to buy back its own stock, which often pushes prices up. UBS, a large investment bank, still rates the shares a Buy even after trimming its target slightly. All this points to a possible move back toward $520 once the recent wave of selling fades.
Primary drivers
- Berkshire's $189 billion cash lets it repurchase plenty of its own stock.
- A rare indicator shows the stock is very beat-up and often rebounds.
- UBS still says Buy even after nudging its target lower, creating a dip chance.
- Rising insurance prices should improve Berkshire's profit mix.
How it played out
BRK-B: thesis partly played out, target missed
Lyra published BRK-B on 2025-07-09 at $477.47. The thesis expected 10% growth toward $525.22. It pointed to a 7% slide, a rare oversold signal that had often been followed by a 9% bounce within roughly two months, Berkshire's $189 billion cash reserve for possible buybacks, a UBS Buy rating, and rising insurance prices.
Inside the window, the stock rose, but not enough. It peaked at $507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6.3% gain, and stayed below the target. It ended at $502.30 on 2025-10-07. The thesis partly played out. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-02, Berkshire reported second-quarter 2025 operating earnings of $11,160 million and net earnings attributable to shareholders of $12,370 million. On 2025-10-02, Berkshire and Occidental announced a definitive agreement for Berkshire to acquire OxyChem in an all-cash transaction for $9.7 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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