Track record · closed signal

The AES Corporation (AES) — closed signal from October 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AES price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.77 Published $16.63 Target $14.50 Window close $15.32 Peak
$14.24 – $14.82Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.77Published — price the day we called it
$16.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$15.32
peak on October 1, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.50
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 1, 2025 – December 30, 2025

The thesis — published October 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$16.63
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$14.24 – $14.82
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.77
published October 1, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AES is a utility company showing unusual strength for its industry. Recent trading shows steady upward pressure and lots more people buying than usual. News suggests investors are moving toward safer names amid possible government shutdown worries. The company's numbers aren't top-tier and the stock reacts to interest rates, so we prefer patience: consider buying on dips and only add if price proves itself by pushing above recent highs.

Primary drivers

  • Unusually strong uptrend with recent average price pointing higher
  • Investors are shifting toward safer utility stocks per recent news
  • Lots more people are buying than usual, showing strong interest
  • Sensitive to interest rates, so we keep position size more modest

How it played out

AES: the target was not reached

Lyra published AES on 2025-10-01 as a short-term utility signal at $14.77. The thesis expected 14% growth and pointed to an unusually strong uptrend, higher recent average price, buying interest above normal, a shift toward safer utility stocks, and interest-rate sensitivity that called for more modest sizing.

Inside the window from 2025-10-01 to 2025-12-30, AES peaked at $15.32 on 2025-10-01, for a 3.7% gain. That stayed below the $16.63 target. The signal never reached the target, and it ended at $14.50. The thesis only partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AES signals