Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 30, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025 — +3.8% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 30, 2025
This looks like a solid bank at a sale price. A recent research note (9-24) said shares may be up to 43 percent below a fair estimate, and news on 9-16 showed a quick dip below the stock's usual long-term price range, which often shakes out weak hands. The bank is winning more deposits and upgrading its tech. If the market mood steadies, the price could drift back toward a fair level over the next few months.
Primary drivers
- Price may be up to 43% under fair value, per a 9-24 research note
- Winning more deposits and expanding footprint across its regions
- Recent pullback looks tired; trend and mood appear steadier now
- Regional bank peers show steadier news and calmer investor mood
How it played out
ONB: thesis partly played out but target was missed
Lyra published ONB on 2025-09-30 at 21.95. The thesis expected 14% growth toward 24.87. It pointed to a 9-24 research note that said the stock may have been up to 43% under fair value, stronger deposits, a wider footprint, a tired pullback, and steadier regional bank mood.
Inside the window from 2025-09-30 to 2025-12-29, ONB rose but never reached 24.87. The peak was 23.59 on 2025-12-22, with a 7.5% gain. It ended at 22.79. The thesis partly played out on direction, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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