Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 30, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 30, 2025
This looks like a solid bank at a sale price. A recent research note (9-24) said shares may be up to 43 percent below a fair estimate, and news on 9-16 showed a quick dip below the stock's usual long-term price range, which often shakes out weak hands. The bank is winning more deposits and upgrading its tech. If the market mood steadies, the price could drift back toward a fair level over the next few months.
Primary drivers
- Price may be up to 43% under fair value, per a 9-24 research note
- Winning more deposits and expanding footprint across its regions
- Recent pullback looks tired; trend and mood appear steadier now
- Regional bank peers show steadier news and calmer investor mood
How it played out
ONB: thesis partly played out but target was missed
Lyra published ONB on 2025-09-30 at 21.95. The thesis expected 14% growth toward 24.87. It pointed to a 9-24 research note that said the stock may have been up to 43% under fair value, stronger deposits, a wider footprint, a tired pullback, and steadier regional bank mood.
Inside the window from 2025-09-30 to 2025-12-29, ONB rose but never reached 24.87. The peak was 23.59 on 2025-12-22, with a 7.5% gain. It ended at 22.79. The thesis partly played out on direction, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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