Track record · closed signal

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from September 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

MU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$166.85 Published $203.35 Target $294.37 Window close $294.50 Peak
$164.66 – $169.65Entry zone — fair-value band
$166.85Published — price the day we called it
$203.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$294.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$294.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 16 days.

Peak price
$294.50
peak on December 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+76.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$294.37
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
16
Window
September 30, 2025 – December 29, 2025

The thesis — published September 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$203.35
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$164.66 – $169.65
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$166.85
published September 30, 2025
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Micron makes the memory chips that AI servers need right now. Recent price trends and lots more people are buying than usual suggest steady interest, even if some momentum measures look slow. On 9-30 the company beat Q3 expectations, and an analyst said Nvidia must buy from Micron, showing strong pricing power. With more high-value HBM sales and improving margins, a 3-month climb looks reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • AI servers and advanced memory raise prices and demand for Micron chips
  • Recent price strength plus unusually heavy buying support the trend
  • Sept 30 results beat forecasts, backing the improving sales trend
  • Analyst says Nvidia needs Micron supply, signaling firm pricing power

How it played out

MU: target reached in 16 days

Lyra published MU at $166.85 on 2025-09-30, with a 3-month thesis for 22% growth to $203.35. The thesis pointed to memory demand from artificial intelligence servers, advanced memory pricing, recent price strength, unusually heavy buying, a Q3 beat, higher-value HBM sales, improving margins, and a Nvidia supply argument.

Inside the window, MU reached the target in 16 days. It kept rising after that and peaked at $294.50 on 2025-12-29, with a peak gain of 76.5%. The stock ended at $294.37. The thesis played out, and the price moved well past the published target.

What happened during the window

On December 3, 2025, Micron announced that it would exit the Crucial consumer business and keep shipping Crucial products through February 2026. On December 17, 2025, Micron reported fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $13.64 billion and GAAP net income of $5.24 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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