Track record · closed signal

Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) — closed signal from September 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRGS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$45.56 Published $55.13 Target $43.60 Window close $47.37 Peak
$44.00 – $46.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$45.56Published — price the day we called it
$55.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$47.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$43.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$47.37
peak on October 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$43.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 30, 2025 – December 29, 2025

The thesis — published September 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+21%
over the measurement window
Target price
$55.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$44.00 – $46.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$45.56
published September 30, 2025
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Progress Software beat expectations on 9-30 and raised its outlook, noting faster growth from AI and the ShareFile tie-in. That improved sentiment and trading, with lots more people buying than usual. The recent average price trend looks positive, so we prefer buying dips over chasing a quick run-up. Guidance to $975M-$981M revenue and higher EPS sets clear near-term targets, and solid execution supports likely follow-through next quarter.

Primary drivers

  • 9-30 results topped forecasts, and management raised its outlook
  • AI features plus the ShareFile tie-in are speeding customer adoption
  • Buying interest is strong, with far more trading than usual
  • Better delivery on plans and clearer view of upcoming revenue

How it played out

PRGS: the 21% target was not reached

Lyra published PRGS on 2025-09-30 at $45.56, with expected growth of 21% and a target of $55.13. The thesis pointed to results that topped forecasts, a raised outlook, artificial intelligence features, the ShareFile tie-in, stronger buying interest, and a clearer view of upcoming revenue.

Inside the window, PRGS peaked at $47.37 on 2025-10-03. That was a 4% peak gain, but it stayed below the $55.13 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-29, the stock ended at $43.60. The thesis partially played out on early price strength, then missed the target by the end of the window.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PRGS signals