Track record · closed signal

Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) — closed signal from September 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025 — -4.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRGS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$44.00 – $46.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$45.56Published — price the day we called it

$55.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$47.37Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$43.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-4.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$43.60

last close inside the window, ended December 29, 2025

Peak price

$47.37

peak on October 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+21%

over the measurement window

Target price

$55.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$44.00 – $46.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$45.56

published September 30, 2025

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Progress Software beat expectations on 9-30 and raised its outlook, noting faster growth from AI and the ShareFile tie-in. That improved sentiment and trading, with lots more people buying than usual. The recent average price trend looks positive, so we prefer buying dips over chasing a quick run-up. Guidance to $975M-$981M revenue and higher EPS sets clear near-term targets, and solid execution supports likely follow-through next quarter.

Primary drivers

9-30 results topped forecasts, and management raised its outlook
AI features plus the ShareFile tie-in are speeding customer adoption
Buying interest is strong, with far more trading than usual
Better delivery on plans and clearer view of upcoming revenue

How it played out

PRGS: the 21% target was not reached

Lyra published PRGS on 2025-09-30 at $45.56, with expected growth of 21% and a target of $55.13. The thesis pointed to results that topped forecasts, a raised outlook, artificial intelligence features, the ShareFile tie-in, stronger buying interest, and a clearer view of upcoming revenue.

Inside the window, PRGS peaked at $47.37 on 2025-10-03. That was a 4% peak gain, but it stayed below the $55.13 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-29, the stock ended at $43.60. The thesis partially played out on early price strength, then missed the target by the end of the window.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PRGS signals