T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from September 29, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 29, 2025
The share price looks beaten down after a rough patch, so a short-term bounce seems possible even though the business is solid. Recent news is upbeat: customers are paying more per account than at any time in eight years, and buying UScellular adds over 4 million customers. Bigger scale and steadier phone bills can lift cash flow. Over the next 3 months, returning toward earlier price levels looks realistic if integration goes smoothly.
Primary drivers
- Price looks washed out while investor mood is unusually positive right now
- Higher revenue per account plus a bigger base can lift profits
- Adding UScellular users should cut costs and expand network reach
- Phone plans bring steady cash, helping in tougher market conditions
How it played out
TMUS: target was not reached
Lyra published TMUS at $237.25 on 2025-09-29 with 12% expected growth. The thesis looked for a short-term bounce after a rough patch. It pointed to higher revenue per account, the added UScellular customer base, possible cost cuts, wider network reach, and steady phone-plan cash flow.
Inside the window, TMUS peaked at $239.76 on 2025-10-01, a 1.1% gain. That stayed below the $264.42 target. The target was never reached. By 2025-12-28, the stock ended at $201. The thesis missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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