Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from September 29, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$338.02 Published $411.60 Target $352.13 Window close $413.82 Peak
$328.74 – $341.69Entry zone — fair-value band
$338.02Published — price the day we called it
$411.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$413.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$352.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

Peak price
$413.82
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$352.13
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
72
Window
September 29, 2025 – December 28, 2025

The thesis — published September 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$411.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$328.74 – $341.69
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$338.02
published September 29, 2025
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AVGO looks beaten down and may bounce. Net debt is about $53.5B and viewed as workable. Its link to AI chip demand keeps attention on the stock, and possible rate cuts could ease financing pressure. Over the next 3 months, buying near the recent average price looks for a move back toward typical levels, while careful position sizes and clear exits help manage integration and sector rotation risks.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down, and the recent average price trend is steadying
  • Could benefit as demand grows for chips that connect large AI data centers
  • About $53.5B in debt appears manageable relative to the firm's cash flow
  • Large, heavily traded stock, so quick rebounds can draw plenty of buyers

How it played out

AVGO: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published AVGO at $338.02 on 2025-09-29 with a short-term thesis for 22% growth toward $411.60. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, a steadying recent average trend, demand for chips that connect large artificial intelligence data centers, about $53.5B in debt viewed as manageable, and the stock's large, heavily traded profile.

Inside the window, AVGO reached a peak of $413.82 on 2025-12-10. That was a 22.4% gain, and it reached the target in 72 days. By 2025-12-28 it ended at $352.13. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-13, Broadcom and OpenAI announced a strategic agreement to develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom accelerators. On 2025-12-12, Broadcom reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $18.02 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.95, according to Investopedia.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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