Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from September 29, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$250.68 Published $290.60 Target $314.96 Window close $328.46 Peak
$243.68 – $251.67Entry zone — fair-value band
$250.68Published — price the day we called it
$290.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$328.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$314.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

Peak price
$328.46
peak on November 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+31%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$314.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
31
Window
September 29, 2025 – December 28, 2025

The thesis — published September 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$290.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$243.68 – $251.67
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$250.68
published September 29, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's recent drop looks overdone, and steady buying interest plus a generally positive mood suggest the price can recover. Several research firms point to $300-$325, and confidence in AI-powered ads and search adds to the case. Over the next 3 months, the plan is to add on dips and aim for a move back toward earlier highs. Risks remain: possible regulator actions and rich market pricing, so use clear exits and careful position size.

Primary drivers

  • Sharp drop, but buying interest is improving
  • AI makes ads and search work better
  • Experts think the price has room to rise
  • Very large company with deep trading activity

How it played out

GOOG: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published GOOG at 250.68 on 2025-09-29 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to a sharp drop that looked overdone, improving buying interest, better ads and search from artificial intelligence, outside price views of $300-$325, and deep trading activity. It also named regulator actions and rich market pricing as risks.

Inside the 2025-09-29 to 2025-12-28 window, GOOG reached the 290.60 target in 31 days. It later peaked at 328.46 on 2025-11-25, with a peak gain of 31%. The stock ended at 314.96. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On October 29, 2025, Alphabet reported Q3 revenue of $102.35 billion and its first $100 billion quarter. On November 18, 2025, Google launched Gemini 3 across the Gemini app, Search's artificial-intelligence mode, and enterprise products.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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