Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from September 29, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025 — +25.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$243.68 – $251.67Entry zone — fair-value band

$250.68Published — price the day we called it

$290.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$328.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$314.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

At window close

+25.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+31%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$314.96

last close inside the window, ended December 28, 2025

Peak price

$328.46

peak on November 25, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 29, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$290.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$243.68 – $251.67

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$250.68

published September 29, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet's recent drop looks overdone, and steady buying interest plus a generally positive mood suggest the price can recover. Several research firms point to $300-$325, and confidence in AI-powered ads and search adds to the case. Over the next 3 months, the plan is to add on dips and aim for a move back toward earlier highs. Risks remain: possible regulator actions and rich market pricing, so use clear exits and careful position size.

Primary drivers

Sharp drop, but buying interest is improving
AI makes ads and search work better
Experts think the price has room to rise
Very large company with deep trading activity

How it played out

GOOG: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published GOOG at 250.68 on 2025-09-29 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to a sharp drop that looked overdone, improving buying interest, better ads and search from artificial intelligence, outside price views of $300-$325, and deep trading activity. It also named regulator actions and rich market pricing as risks.

Inside the 2025-09-29 to 2025-12-28 window, GOOG reached the 290.60 target in 31 days. It later peaked at 328.46 on 2025-11-25, with a peak gain of 31%. The stock ended at 314.96. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On October 29, 2025, Alphabet reported Q3 revenue of $102.35 billion and its first $100 billion quarter. On November 18, 2025, Google launched Gemini 3 across the Gemini app, Search's artificial-intelligence mode, and enterprise products.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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