Track record · closed signal

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) — closed signal from September 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025 — +1.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

EDU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$52.62 – $55.26Entry zone — fair-value band

$54.80Published — price the day we called it

$66.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$60.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$55.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$55.73

last close inside the window, ended December 28, 2025

Peak price

$60.88

peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 29, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$66.12

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$52.62 – $55.26

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$54.80

published September 29, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks ready for a short-term bounce after a sharp slide, while the longer trend still leans positive. Updates show the company uses capital well and has delivered about 23% a year to shareholders over 3 years. A new annual filing with U.S. regulators signals steady execution. A 3 month climb is possible, but changes in China's rules mean keep positions modest and have a clear exit plan.

Primary drivers

Price dropped fast while the broader overall uptrend still looks healthy
Efficient use of capital and about 23% per year for shareholders over 3 years
Investor mood is positive lately, bringing in more buyers than usual
Government policy can change, so plan small positions and clear exits

How it played out

EDU: the thesis partly played out, target not reached

Lyra published EDU at 54.8 on 2025-09-29 with 22% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a fast price drop inside a still healthy broader uptrend, efficient use of capital, about 23% per year for shareholders over 3 years, positive investor mood, and the risk that government policy could change.

Inside the window, EDU rose to 60.88 on 2025-10-27, a 11.1% peak gain. It stayed below the 66.12 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-12-28, it ended at 55.73. The published bounce thesis partly played out, but the full target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EDU signals