New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) — closed signal from September 29, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 29, 2025
The stock looks ready for a short-term bounce after a sharp slide, while the longer trend still leans positive. Updates show the company uses capital well and has delivered about 23% a year to shareholders over 3 years. A new annual filing with U.S. regulators signals steady execution. A 3 month climb is possible, but changes in China's rules mean keep positions modest and have a clear exit plan.
Primary drivers
- Price dropped fast while the broader overall uptrend still looks healthy
- Efficient use of capital and about 23% per year for shareholders over 3 years
- Investor mood is positive lately, bringing in more buyers than usual
- Government policy can change, so plan small positions and clear exits
How it played out
EDU: the thesis partly played out, target not reached
Lyra published EDU at 54.8 on 2025-09-29 with 22% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a fast price drop inside a still healthy broader uptrend, efficient use of capital, about 23% per year for shareholders over 3 years, positive investor mood, and the risk that government policy could change.
Inside the window, EDU rose to 60.88 on 2025-10-27, a 11.1% peak gain. It stayed below the 66.12 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-12-28, it ended at 55.73. The published bounce thesis partly played out, but the full target missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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