Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from September 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025 — -10.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$147.54 Published $182.95 Target $131.84 Window close $164.94 Peak
$144.00 – $150.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$147.54Published — price the day we called it
$182.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$164.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$131.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 49% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-10.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$131.84
last close inside the window, ended December 28, 2025
Peak price
$164.94
peak on October 30, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$182.95
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$144.00 – $150.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$147.54
published September 29, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares have fallen hard even though the long-term story looks strong, so a quick rebound is likely. News shows AI leadership spreading beyond the biggest tech names, helping companies that build the networks they rely on. Over the next 3 months, orders should look more normal, which could lift the stock. Consider buying on dips and plan an exit in advance if the price keeps falling.

Primary drivers

  • Stock fell a lot quickly, setting up for a possible quick bounce soon
  • Rising demand for network gear that connects rapidly growing AI data centers
  • More buyers than usual, showing interest in the stock is returning
  • Strength is spreading beyond the biggest tech names, which helps key suppliers

How it played out

ANET: rebound came up short

Lyra published ANET at $147.54 on 2025-09-29 with 24% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a sharp prior fall, a possible quick bounce, demand for network gear tied to artificial intelligence data centers, returning buyer interest, and strength spreading beyond the biggest tech names.

Inside the window, ANET rose to $164.94 on 2025-10-30, a 11.8% peak gain. It stayed below the $182.95 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-28, it ended at $131.84. The rebound partly happened, but the published target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-04, Arista reported third-quarter results. Investors Business Daily said adjusted earnings were $0.75 per share and revenue was $2.308 billion, with current-quarter revenue guidance of $2.35 billion at the midpoint.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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