Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from September 29, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 28, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 31 days.
The thesis — published September 29, 2025
Trend looks healthy, with price acting strong and more buyers than usual. Recent news shows FY2025 revenue up 23.7 percent, and hopes for lower interest rates could free up budgets for new equipment. AI is driving demand for chipmaking tools, and memory markets are improving. Over the next three months, aiming for gains on small pullbacks makes sense, while timing of orders and any broad economic shocks are the key risks.
Primary drivers
- Strong trend, with more buyers than usual and steady recent average prices
- AI demand is lifting chip equipment sales and improving memory conditions
- Sales growth is solid and appears likely to continue in the near term
- Potential rate cuts could make customer investments easier to fund
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 31 days
Lyra published LRCX at $132.01 on 2025-09-29 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-28. The thesis expected 24% growth toward $163.43. It pointed to a strong trend, more buyers than usual, solid sales growth, artificial intelligence demand for chip equipment, improving memory conditions, and possible rate cuts that could make customer investments easier to fund.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 31 days. It later peaked at $179.80 on 2025-12-26, with a 36.2% gain. It ended at $178.07. The published thesis played out, and the move went past the target before the window closed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-22, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on revenue of $5.32 billion, and guided to $1.15 per share on $5.2 billion of revenue for the quarter ending 2025-12-28. This was a company result during the window, not an explanation for the stock move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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