Track record · closed signal

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) — closed signal from September 28, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 27, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NEE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$75.34 Published $83.81 Target $80.41 Window close $86.94 Peak
$73.50 – $74.78Entry zone — fair-value band
$75.34Published — price the day we called it
$83.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$86.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$80.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 15 days.

Peak price
$86.94
peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$80.41
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
15
Window
September 28, 2025 – December 27, 2025

The thesis — published September 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$83.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$73.50 – $74.78
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$75.34
published September 28, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NextEra mixes the steady nature of a utility with real growth potential. The company has lifted its dividend by 11% a year for 10 years, and recent research suggests about 22% room to rise. The price trend looks healthy, with improving momentum and a rising recent average price, but the stock feels a bit hot, so buying on dips is wiser. If rates fall, utilities and dividend income can draw more demand over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Dividend has grown 11% a year for a decade, appealing to income seekers
  • Positive trend and a rising recent average price suggest steady buyers
  • Analysts estimate about 22% upside from recent reports
  • If rates fall, utilities can gain and the dividend looks more attractive

How it played out

NEE: target reached in 15 days

Lyra published NEE at $75.34 on 2025-09-28 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to a utility profile with growth potential, 11% annual dividend growth for 10 years, a healthy price trend, steady buyers, about 22% analyst upside, and a possible boost to utilities if rates fell.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $83.81 target in 15 days. It later peaked at $86.94 on 2025-10-28, a 15.4% gain. By 2025-12-27, it ended at $80.41. The thesis played out because the target was reached within the window.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-27, NextEra Energy and Google announced a 25-year agreement tied to the planned restart of the Duane Arnold Energy Center. The release said the 615-MW plant was targeted to be fully operational by the first quarter of 2029.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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