Track record · closed signal

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) — closed signal from September 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 27, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SBH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.98 Published $20.77 Target $14.99 Window close $17.40 Peak
$15.50 – $15.95Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.98Published — price the day we called it
$20.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$17.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$17.40
peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 28, 2025 – December 27, 2025

The thesis — published September 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.50 – $15.95
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.98
published September 28, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Sally Beauty is trying to fix and grow the business, and the stock could benefit if that progress continues. A plan called Fuel for Growth aims to save about $120M. Shoppers are holding up as lower inflation raises hopes for future rate cuts. Short-term price trend looks healthy, but some signs are still mixed, so aim to buy on dips. If sales trends and cost cuts stick, a 3-month push back toward recent highs is possible.

Primary drivers

  • Company is rolling out a plan to save about $120M in expenses over time
  • Strong investor mood is drawing more buyers than usual, lifting demand soon
  • Recent average price is climbing, even as some signals lag behind
  • Falling inflation and possible rate cuts could help shoppers spend more

How it played out

SBH: thesis rose early but never reached the target

Lyra published SBH at $15.98 on 2025-09-28 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to Sally Beauty's Fuel for Growth plan, about $120M in planned expense savings, stronger investor demand, a climbing recent average price, and lower inflation with possible rate cuts helping shoppers spend more.

Inside the window, SBH rose to a peak of $17.40 on 2025-11-13, a peak gain of 8.9%. It stayed below the $20.77 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-27, it ended at $14.99. The thesis partially played out, but the target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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