Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 28, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 27, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$32.83 – $33.60Entry zone — fair-value band

$34.15Published — price the day we called it

$37.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$37.97

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$36.35

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 28, 2025 – December 27, 2025

The thesis — published September 28, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$37.53

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$32.83 – $33.60

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$34.15

published September 28, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks like a steady, income-focused pick with some near-term sparks. It just entered the UK by buying two care homes for $27M and is handling a planned CFO handoff, which signals stable leadership. Investor mood is positive and the recent average price is rising, though one common chart signal looks weak, so easing in makes sense. If borrowing costs fall, the stock could edge toward its prior price ceiling over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

UK care-home purchase adds assets and likely raises rent cash coming in
Recent average price is rising, but a common chart signal remains weak
Investor mood is upbeat and the business looks solid and well run
Falling interest rates usually make REITs more valuable to investors

How it played out

CTRE: peak cleared the target, but the ledger did not mark it

Lyra published CTRE at 34.15 on 2025-09-28 with 12% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a UK care-home purchase, rising recent average price, upbeat investor mood, stable operations, and the idea that falling borrowing costs could help REIT valuations. It also noted one weak chart signal.

Inside the window, CTRE peaked at 37.97 on 2025-12-04, above the 37.53 target. The recorded peak gain was 11.2%. The ledger did not record a day when the target was reached. The stock ended at 36.35 on 2025-12-27. The thesis mostly played out, but not cleanly.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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