Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 27, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 26, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 27, 2025
Old National looks like a good value after a sell-off. Short-term signs hint at an upward turn, while overall mood and business results look decent, even if one momentum gauge is late. Recent news says shares may be up to 43% cheaper than they should be, and interest income is expected to grow. If the economy stays steady, buying near the current range could set up a 1-3 month recovery, with clear exit plans for any bank headlines.
Primary drivers
- Reports suggest the stock could be as much as 43% below fair value
- Short-term signs point to a turn upward and better conditions ahead
- Core business looks healthy and investor mood is generally positive
- Rising net interest income should help profits and steady results
How it played out
ONB: thesis partially played out but missed the target
Lyra published ONB at $22 on 2025-09-27 with a short-term setup. The thesis expected 14% growth toward $24.93. It pointed to reports that the stock could be as much as 43% below fair value, short-term signs of an upward turn, a healthy core business, positive investor mood, and rising net interest income.
Inside the window from 2025-09-27 to 2025-12-26, ONB rose but never reached $24.93. The peak was $23.59 on 2025-12-22, a 7.2% gain. It ended at $22.98. The thesis partially played out because the price moved higher, but the published target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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