Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) — closed signal from September 26, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 25, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 26, 2025
Texas Instruments is seeing signs of steady buying and plenty of interest, which can lift the stock, but the price still looks debated. Recent checks suggest it may be priced a bit high and long-term profit trends are softer, so the picture is mixed. With borrowing rates calming, a short-term bounce is possible. We prefer buying in two parts and keeping risk small while waiting for clearer order growth in industrial and auto.
Primary drivers
- Signs of steady buying; more interest than usual may push price up
- News raises price worries, suggesting the stock might be a bit expensive
- Tied to car and factory markets, which can swing with the business cycle
- Optimistic mood contrasts with slower profit trends, creating mixed signals
How it played out
TXN: target was not reached
Lyra published TXN at $183.86 on 2025-09-26 with a short-term thesis for 15% expected growth and a $209.57 target. The thesis pointed to steady buying, more interest than usual, price worries, exposure to car and factory markets, and slower profit trends that made the setup mixed.
Inside the window, TXN peaked at $185.63 on 2025-09-26, for a 1% peak gain. It stayed below the target and never got there. By 2025-12-25, it ended at $177.13. The thesis missed on price, even though the stock briefly rose from publication.
What happened during the window
On October 21, 2025, Texas Instruments reported third-quarter results and gave fourth-quarter guidance. On December 18, 2025, reports said Texas Instruments had started production at its new Sherman, Texas wafer fab.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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