Old National Bancorp (ONB) — closed signal from September 26, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 25, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 26, 2025
Old National looks beaten down after heavy selling, yet investor mood is positive and the business seems solid. Analysis suggests shares may be about 43 percent underpriced, with profits expected to grow 34 percent. A drop below a widely watched price mark added pressure. If rates settle, costs and valuations could improve, pointing to a rebound in 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Price looks very washed out after heavy selling, often a bounce set-up
- Shares may be priced below worth, with profits expected to grow
- If interest rates settle, the bank could earn more on loans and deposits
- Positive mood from investors could lift how the market values the stock
How it played out
ONB: target was not reached
Lyra published ONB at $21.97 on 2025-09-26 with 18% expected growth toward $25.76. The thesis pointed to heavy selling, a washed-out price, possible undervaluation, expected profit growth, a chance that steadier rates could help bank earnings, and positive investor mood.
Inside the window from 2025-09-26 to 2025-12-25, ONB rose but stayed below the target. It peaked at $23.59 on 2025-12-22, with a 7.4% peak gain. It ended at $23.06. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose, but it never got to $25.76.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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