Track record · closed signal

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from September 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 25, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

MU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$156.89 Published $197.48 Target $286.56 Window close $289.18 Peak
$151.69 – $156.68Entry zone — fair-value band
$156.89Published — price the day we called it
$197.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$289.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$286.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 10 days.

Peak price
$289.18
peak on December 24, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+84.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$286.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
10
Window
September 26, 2025 – December 25, 2025

The thesis — published September 26, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$197.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$151.69 – $156.68
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$156.89
published September 26, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Micron is riding the surge in memory used for AI. The company just beat expectations (Q4 sales $11.3B) and raised the outlook for next quarter, supporting firm pricing and a better product mix. Buying looks heavier than usual and the recent average price is rising, which fits a buy-the-dip plan. With tight HBM supply and strong data center demand, the next 0-3 months have a good chance to push higher if interest continues.

Primary drivers

  • Beat earnings and raised outlook, backing healthier pricing and mix.
  • More buyers than usual and rising recent average price show strength.
  • AI servers and HBM needs are lifting demand for premium memory chips.
  • Big investors likely buy dips, helping support and lift the stock.

How it played out

MU: target reached in 10 days

Lyra published MU on 2025-09-26 at $156.89 with expected growth of 26%. The target was $197.48. The thesis pointed to Q4 sales of $11.3B, a raised outlook, healthier pricing and mix, heavier buying than usual, rising recent average price, tight HBM supply, data center demand, and likely dip buying by big investors.

Inside the window, MU reached the target in 10 days. It later peaked at $289.18 on 2025-12-24, with a peak gain of 84.3%. The window ended at $286.56. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.

What happened during the window

On December 3, 2025, Micron announced plans to wind down its Crucial consumer business by the end of February 2026. The company said it would keep shipping Crucial products until then and keep warranty support after shipments stopped.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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